Today I voted in the Washington state Democratic Caucus, which is the first time I've ever participated in such an event. Anya can't legally vote, but she was able to come along as an observer. We both learned a lot about the (terribly convoluted) caucus process.
Our precinct caucused with several other precincts (all people who live in downtown Seattle) at the Seattle Public Library. We entered, signed in and stated our preference for candidate, and milled around a large room waiting for everyone to arrive. There were several hundred people there. Based on the number of stickers, t-shirts, and signs it was not immediately obvious which candidate had the edge. After everyone arrived and all the initial votes were counted, we broke out into a conference room with just the people in our precinct.
Once in the room we sat in 3 groups: Obama, Clinton, and undecided (apparently no one was voting for Mike Gravel). People were allowed to give short, 1-minute speeches and no active debating was allowed. The objective was to convince others to switch sides. Of course, people from both the Obama and Clinton sides were trying to woo the undecideds. The undecideds who spoke either asked questions or declared their intention to remain undecided. Some of these sentiments may have been residual anger for Edwards dropping out.
The consensus in the room was that most people would be happy with either candidate; Obama people would support Hillary if she won the nomination, and vice versa. Almost everyone who spoke talked of change and voiced their displeasure (or outright hatred) for the current administration. An incomplete summary of the comments that were made:
Obama people support him because:
- Both candidates are the same on the issues
- Obama speaks of hope and is a consensus builder; Hillary is too divisive and won't get things done
- Obama's run evokes memories of JFK
- Hillary represents the past, Obama is new
- Obama has a better chance against McCain
Clinton people support her because:
- She's a proven, known quantity with lots of experience
- Bill was a great President and a 3rd Clinton term is needed to clean up another Bush mess
- Her health care plan is better, Obama's is weak
- Obama is all talk and no action; he skips too many critical votes in the Senate
- Her voting record might not be perfect, but at least she has convictions and sticks to them
And now, the data you're probably wondering about:
Our voting precinct encompasses an area about 6 blocks square which contains a number of apartment/condo complexes. From this area, 104 voters were present. Based on this number, we voters were to apportion 8 delegates who would go on to represent us at the next stage of the process, which is another caucus (this one for our entire legislative district - roughly 20 precincts).
At the outset, 9 voters were undecided, 21 sided with Clinton, and an overwhelming 74 were in the Obama camp. Based on these initial numbers, Obama would get 6 delegates, Clinton 1, and the undecideds would get 1. After everyone who wished to voice an opinion to the room had done so, we were given a chance to change our votes. In the end, a couple undecideds went to the Clinton camp, which left our final delegate count like this: 6 for Obama, 2 for Clinton (remember, we got 8 total for the 104 voters who showed up).
As of the time I'm writing this, it appears that our precinct was not unusual: Obama is winning WA by approximately a 2-1 margin.
If you're wondering about demographics, here are some of my totally unscientific observations:
- Out of our 104 people, there were a dozen or so African Americans and several Asians; all of them were on the Obama side
- The Hillary supporters were all white and mostly middle-aged
- There were a significant number of 20- and 30-somethings, most of them were on the Obama side although a few were with Clinton
- There were several people who appeared to be quite elderly; all were with Obama
- There were a handful of people who appeared to be ex-hippies; they were divided between sides
- There were 2 people who, based on their speeches, seemed to be quite insane. They were split between Obama and Clinton
So which side was I on? I think that's a topic that deserves its own post sometime in the future.
3 comments:
Erik, very interesting! Was Kathy Peterson there? The news media would have you believe the Clinton folks and the Obama folks are a long ways apart. Your experience indicates otherwise. If Hillary gets the nomination, will the young people who support Obama bother to vote??
No, Kathy Peterson was not there :-) although I'm sure she was at her own caucus place.
The tone of the room seemed that everyone was united against the Republicans, with people from both sides admitting that the candidates have very similar stances on the issues.
You ask a great question. It did seem that the Obama side had quite a few people who wouldn't normally participate in politics at all (several said they had never even voted before, let alone caucused) - and it wasn't necessarily just young people. Several old timers said they hadn't voted since JFK, but they were with Obama because he was somehow different than any politicians have been since.
Will they all turn out to vote for Hillary if she wins the nomination? I'm not so sure about that... On the flip side, I think most of the Clinton supporters in our room will turn out no matter what - they seemed to be lifetime Dems. One guy on the Clinton side even said, "I want Obama to be President, I just want him to be President after Hillary."
Beating McCain is so important that even though I think Hillary would make the better President, I voted for Obama. His ability to inspire new and independent voters is what the Dems need to win.
I have to agree with you about Obama. I think he is more fluff and image than anything else, but he seem so much more electable, because people are excited about him. Bottom line: Republicans had Clinton more than they hate McCain.
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